President Donald Trump is taking a huge gamble, both for the U.S. economy and Republicans’ political fortunes, with his decision to go forward with imposing steep tariffs on most of America’s trading partners.
Trump has long contended that high tariffs are the way to restore American manufacturing, but even if he’s correct — most economists say he’s not — it would take years for this country to ramp up and start making domestically the goods that it has outsourced and imported. In the meantime, the Trump tariffs are certain to drive up costs and drive down U.S. exports. Agriculture could be one of the prime economic segments to suffer. The president has talked about softening the blow for farmers by increasing government aid to them, but that means replacing foreign customers with U.S. debt. That doesn’t sound like a good tradeoff.
Politically, Trump won’t pay a direct price if his tariff actions prove to be a bust, since he is in his final term. There will, though, be an indirect price for the president if inflation rises and employment falls significantly from a global trade war. Republican majorities are slim in both houses of Congress. It wouldn’t take much voter disgruntlement to flip one or both chambers to the Democratic Party in the 2026 mid-term elections. Should that happen, the president will be trading a compliant Congress for a defiant one.
